(updated) My thoughts on Team finance exploit re. CAW
A difficult time, however, these are my thoughts on why I feel pretty confident. EDIT: I was right. It's sorted. 3 days later.
This a test. A real test of belief. Those who get through this will deserve to be called OGs.
There will be a before and after!
Context:
A team finance exploit of v2 to v3 liquidity migration made possible for the LP of CAW to be withdrawn. Effectively taking 10M in liquidity out of the pool.
This is the wallet of the exploiter. https://etherscan.io/address/0xba399a2580785a2ded740f5e30ec89fb3e617e6e
The dev (whom I suspect is Ryoshi or works for/ with Ryoshi) sent a message asking for the LP to be burnt.
Team finance has reached out to the attacker to try to arrange a bounty deal. Where the hacker gets a % of the hack as a bounty for discovering the exploit and both parties move on.
The dev of O (which I believe is also Ryoshi, or a friend working for or with Ryoshi) has quickly withdrawn the tokens for safety.
so O and CAW price is now erratic and impacted, plus qom, the third suspected Ryoshi token, also got impacted, because CAW and QOM are linked into the original CAW manifesto.
It has happened a few hours ago. And I’m very calm despite a significant personal exposure to the project.
Here are why I’m calm and what I want to share with all holders.
First off, the most likely outcome is that a snapshot will be taken before the exploit, and a v2 token will be airdropped. In those cases, usually best practice is to sit on tokens and wait for instructions from the dev/ team.
And there is 800k in the CAW deployer. Worst worst case, v2 airdrop and it starts at 800k Mcap (and insta moons…) It would create a huge problem of dilution of current holders so it’s unlikely this happens.
Finally, there are a few key routes to explore through the traditional way of slving this.
One is team.finance having insurance and being able to compensate the project. They’d need insurance given they claim 2B in held assets and their brand equity would lose a lot if they didn’t. So that’s a significant route to explore and make the holders good.
Now into some precise reasons why I’m confident, that we have the wild ace up our sleeve, in case the rest fails.
1- My thesis is that Ryoshi is behind this project.
For example, Using LBPs on copper pools to raise big liquidity, the manifesto (find it here in its decrypted version), the enigmas to get there (which were incredibly complex) and the deployer wallet (wallet which deployed the CAW contract) being funded by SHIB deployer when Ryoshi was active.
And also behind QOM and O. The fact O lp tokens got withdrawn very quickly are another signal for later. The fact Qom is being impacted by this too. The market does seem pretty confident those 3 tokens are linked.
In a way the sequence of events and reaction from the market, gives me an even greater confidence that the 3 projects are linked and connected to Ryoshi.
Did Ryoshi come back to birth some insanely innovative and disruptive projects, just to let them fail because of a team finance exploit?
I DON’T THINK SO.
Yes, Ryoshi is a fervent defender of decentralization. This is the very reason why there is risk on the LP. We’re in the early days of decentralization, believe it or not. So those things happen, we find a solution, and decentralisation becomes stronger and stronger. But that doesn’t mean giving up especially when there is a vision.
Visionaries don’t give up. And what my heart tells me, is that Ryoshi sure will not give up. Especially if you look at the nature of the problem we need to fix.
The very existence of this new ecosystem to be on Cosmos, fast, cheap, delivered quickly is because the vision is what matters and an alternative way/ or complementary way, to what SHIB is doing is necessary.
Doesn’t sound like somebody giving up, when you’re like, Ok let’s try this again but with a different approach.
Finally, WHO is Ryoshi? That’s the crux here. Is Ryoshi connected to some of the richest people on the planet? Can some of those people save the LP if needed and get their money back later (like a VC investing?)
Decentralisation doesn’t mean some community members are more able to help than others. It means the solution can come from any of us.
It’s likely some heroes emerge from this. And I wouldn’t be surprised that they fix it from the shadows if they have to. Seeking no recognition. Just to advance an ideal. Some heroes of decentralisation will never be known.
2- The problem is a financial problem, nothing else.
In essence, nothing else has changed. If hacker doesn’t give back the tokens, then a v2 is made. Really, not a problem. The only problem is the theft of the liquidity.
Everything else is incredibly strong. The Dapp is looking amazing, the github is popping with updates regularly, and community has never been stronger with 14.5k holders.
Check out the video in this tweet:
Check out the quality of the marketing produced by the community:
Now, can Ryoshi, his supporters, whales and non whales, solve a financial problem?
When wallets are burning 1M USD in QOM tokens, do you think those top holders do not have the ability to fix a financial problem?
Do you think some of the millionaires and billionaires made by Ryoshi thru SHIB would not help when a new pool is built?
That’s my point. Even a few millions, can be found for the new pool. In the worst case, - no insurance from team finance or hackers keep it all - we can STILL solve the ONLY problem we have.
Best case is insurance, hackers taking a bounty. Sure. That’s possible. But the worst case is also solvable.
Whatever the liquidity situation, the project will survive. Maimed or miraculously unscathed. The project has never be stronger.
3- Even the worst worst case is fine
The worst worst case is that, whales or supporters can’t raise a few MILs and can only donate 200k in DAI. You have the 800K in the deployer and you got 1M. Enough to launch the project again.
But would Ryoshi relaunch with a 90% haircut? Maybe. We can always rebuild. It’d probably not take a long time to get back to 10M Mcap. Especially if Ryoshi gives us a sign.
I’ve said it before Ryoshi is the Steve Jobs of crypto, wherever he goes and whatever he makes, teh people will want it. If Ryoshi made tokens to go 10Bils+ before, the market will naturally expect the same of his new projects. So however low the token starts again, I do not even know how fast the market would reprice the project back to where it was, and potentially, add the confirmation that Ryoshi is backing it.
In conclusion:
This is a very hard time. Decentralization is an arduous path. But this is life, the only way you can expect something exceptional is when it is painful.
Some of us are very exposed, but we are exposed BECAUSE we believe.
The ONLY risk I consider, is if I was wrong, and Ryoshi was not behind those projects, then yes, I’d think the chance of damage done to the projects is much higher.
That’s why I’m not 100% allocated to those 3 projects, although it is the lion share of my eth portfolio.
We know what our heart tells us. But here this is my head speaking, Ryoshi is the reason why I’m invested, his vision, all the breadcrumbs left for us with “teh eyes to see”. It’s only logical, that I’m supremely calm.
Because I believe. Because my crypto life has always been centered around SHIB and Ryoshi, because I’ve spent a LOT of hours, because I’ve been fooled so many times, until I got to the truth and because this journey of almost 2 years led me here. To CAW, O and QOM.
I’m sharing with you my confidence. I hope this soothes some of the anxieties some may be experiencing.
I can’t guarantee anything. But in short, the problem can be solved IF Ryoshi is indeed behind this new ecosystem.
And that belief has not faltered. Teh flame is still burning. I’m feeling it, the heat is still there.
Stay strong. Stay united. Decentralization is about teh people solving problems together. Because if we don’t, there is a centralised permissioned world that will take every bit of freedom you ever thought was granted to you for being a human being.
The stakes are too high.
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I’m not selling shit!
